The Maturity Calendar Is CFO Work — Why DSCR Packages Decide Refinancings Before Rate Quotes Do

*By Douglas Kohn, CPA*

Commercial real estate operators still talk about the "maturity wall" as if rates alone decide outcomes. Rates matter. They do not write the lender package, rebuild trailing NOI, or prove debt-service coverage before a credit committee meets. That is CFO work.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (Feb 9, 2026) reports that 17 percent ($875 billion) of the $5.0 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages is scheduled to mature in 2026, down 9 percent from $957 billion scheduled for 2025, with $652 billion also flagged for 2027. Reed Smith's

Feb 2026 read of that MBA release: the peak may be easing, but a large refinancing book remains amid elevated borrowing costs and selective underwriting.

Deloitte's 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook says over half of surveyed CRE leaders face property loan maturity in the coming year, cites more than $1.7 trillion in U.S. commercial mortgages (many stretched by "extend-and-pretend"), and notes only 21 percent of respondents expected to pay off an upcoming maturity in full. The Federal Reserve's January 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey reported generally unchanged bank CRE standards and stronger CRE demand in Q4 2025, with large banks easing on balance while other banks tightened.

Industry DSCR floors for stabilized assets commonly sit near 1.25x, with many lenders preferring 1.30x or higher by asset class and lender type. Rate shopping is the last mile. The work that changes outcomes starts 6-18 months earlier: a maturity and covenant calendar by entity; trailing NOI rebuilt the way each lender underwrites it; DSCR scenarios before a term sheet; CapEx/TI/LC and distributions aligned to the refinancing story; and a lender-ready package early (P&Ls, rent rolls, reserves, CapEx, covenant draft). Construction Executive's July 2026 construction financial-planning guidance lands in the same place for developer-builders: bonding and lender confidence track working capital, backlog, WIP credibility, and debt service.

Ultramar focuses fractional CFO and Controller support on real estate and construction platforms that live in NOI, DSCR covenants, draws, WIP, and lender-ready reporting. SoFla Prime Consulting provides fractional CFO, Controller, and accounting oversight for growing South Florida businesses and nonprofit and multi-entity environments that need the same covenant clarity.

If your 2026-2027 maturity list still lives in a broker email and a property P&L that does not match lender NOI, you are not late on a rate quote. You are late on CFO work.